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Семакова Элеонора Ринатовна
Старший научный сотрудник (2010)
Кандидат географических наук (2004, гидрология суши, водные ресурсы, гидрохимия, 11.00.07)
Научный отдел: Отдел солнечно-земной физики
Образование: Новосибирский институт инженеров геодезии аэрофотосьемки и картографии, 1989, Инженер-аэрофотогеодезист
Год рождения: 1967
//Geography, Environment, Sustainability, Vol.12, No 1, p. 5-12
«Estimation of Dispersed Glaciation Shrinkage Under Climate Change»
Gleb E. Glazirin, Eleonora R. Semakova
(Абстракт ...) We propose a new method of estimating the shrinkage of glaciers over a wide area under conditions of changed climate. The method can be also used to quantitatively estimate the presence of glaciers under past climatic conditions, in mountainous areas where they are currently absent. The method is based on the use of statistical parameters of the distribution of glaciers by altitude zones, according to vertical distance from the climatic equilibrium line altitude (CELA). The method was used for the Pskem River basin (tributary of the Chirchik River, Western Tien-Shan) where glaciation has been extensively studied. Data are available for several glacier inventories for the basin for different time periods from 1957 to 2010. The number of glaciers for the part of the basin considered in the studies decreased by 16 percent during that period. Mean summer air temperature and annual precipitation were used as climate indicators characterizing ablation and accumulation on glaciers. Data of several meteorological stations located in the Pskem River basin were used to document these climatic characteristics. We estimated shrinkage of glaciers over the area for increases of summer air temperature of 0.5 - 2°C.
//5th International Conference Debris Flows: Disasters, Risk, Forecast, Protection. Tbilisi, Georgia, 1-5 October 2018. – Ed. by S.S. Chernomorets, G.V. Gavardashvili, p. 571-575.
«Remote sensing techniques and numerical simulation of debris flows in the Akhangaran and Tegermech Rivers basins, using RAMMS software»
Semakova E., Alimov Yo., Sichugova L., Semakov D., Graf C.
(Абстракт ...) В работе рассматриваются методы идентификации селевых процессов на спутниковых снимках, результаты численного моделирования дождевого селя Ирташсай, сошедшего в бассейне реки Ахангаран, Узбекистан, и возможного гляциального селя в случае прорыва ледниковых озер в верховьях реки Исфайрамсай, Киргизия, с использованием программы RAMMS.
//International Snow Science Workshop. A merging of Theory and Practice
«Applying numerical snow avalanche simulations for hazard assessment in the Kamchik pass area, Uzbekistan»
E. Semakova, V. Safronov, A. Mamaraimov, B. Nurtaev, D. Semakov, Y. Bühler.
(Абстракт ...) The mountain and foothill regions of the Republic of Uzbekistan occupy about 12% of the country and are located in the East (Western Tien-Shan range) and South-East (Hissar-Alay mountains). Almost all mountain regions are avalanche prone territory if there are steep slopes and snow cover of sufficient volume. Our focus area has many active slope processes (snow avalanches, mudflows, shallow landslides and rockfalls) and is located in the Ahangaran River basin, close to the Kamchik pass, which is part of the Tashkent-Osh highway, known worldwide as “The Great Silk Road” again activated by Chinese initiative. This road connects the two most densely populated areas of Uzbekistan. Often in winter, snowfall, snowdrift, and avalanche activity disrupt traffic for hours or even days at the most vulnerable segments of road. There are more than 50 avalanche tracks which intersect the road. In single years, more than 150 snow avalanches with different volumes, occurred in the study area, with dry-, mixed- and wet flow regimes. Monitoring of these sites is maintained by the staff of the Kamchik snow avalanche recording station, which operates since 1965. First mitigation measures such as avalanche sheds and tunnels, snow fences and dams allow are already installed to increase safety. However, numerical models in combination with remote sensing data to generate up-to-date digital elevation models allow for a more detailed study of the hazardous situation in particular within remote release areas. Thanks to recent international research projects, financed by the Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) and provided radar data by German Aerospace Center (DLR) we can generate high spatial resolution DEMs for this region and apply numerical snow avalanche simulations using the RAMMS software. Combining field observations, remote sensing data and numerical avalanche simulation is a helpful tool to tackle avalanche hazard, to estimate potential damage and to plan mitigation measures. We used dynamic modeling of snow avalanches with different sizes and frequencies to calculate the runout distances, flow velocities, flow heights and impact pressures based on different scenarios. We validate the sensitivity of the numerical simulations with respect to DEMs with generated at different dates and with different spatial resolutions. We present examples of simulations for small and large avalanche catchments intersecting with the highway as well as with existing mitigation constructions. We aim for a complete hazard assessment of the most important mountain road of Uzbekistan and present a plan how this could be achieved in the near future.
//WSL/SLF&IGG RAMMS Final Workshop, SNF SCOPES, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 17-20 April, 2018
«Some examples of numerical simulation for snow avalanches and debris flows in the Chimgan Valley, the Kamchik pass area, and the Pskem river basins»
E. Semakova
//Journal of Applied Remote Sensing, SPIE, 11(3), 036024 (2017), doi: 10.1117/1.JRS.11.036024
«TerraSAR-X / TanDEM-X data for natural hazards research in mountainous regions of Uzbekistan»
Semakova E., Bühler Yv.
(Абстракт ...) Accurate and up-to-date digital elevation models (DEMs) are important tools for studying mountain hazards. We considered natural hazards related to glacier retreat, debris flows, and snow avalanches in two study areas of the Western Tien-Shan mountains, Uzbekistan. High-resolution DEMs were generated using single TerraSAR-X/TanDEM-X datasets. The high quality and actuality of the DEMs were proved through a comparison with Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, Advanced Spaceborne Emission and Reflection Radiometer, and Topo DEMs, using Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite data as the reference dataset. For the first study area, which had high levels of economic activity, we applied the generated TanDEM-X DEM to an avalanche dynamics simulation using RAMMS software. Verification of the output results showed good agreement with field observations. For the second study area, with a wide spatial distribution of glaciers, we applied the TanDEM-X DEM to an assessment of glacier surface elevation changes. The results can be used to calculate the local mass balance in glacier ablation zones in other areas. Models were applied to estimate the probability of moraine-dammed lake formation and the affected area of a possible debris flow resulting from glacial lake outburst. The natural hazard research methods considered here will minimize costly ground observations in poorly accessible mountains and mitigate the impacts of hazards on the environment of Uzbekistan. © 2017 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE) 1931-3195/2017/$25.00 © 2017 SPIE
//Журнал «Лед и Снег» РАН, РГО, ВАК, БД Scopus: Москва, Наука, 2017. Т. 57, №2, с. 185 – 199
«О возможности использования методов дистанционного зондирования Земли в проведении гляциологических расчетов для горных районов Узбекистана»
Семакова Э.Р., Семаков Д.Г.
(Абстракт ...) The ALOS/AVNIR-2 satellite data (2007–2010) allowed estimating areas of glaciers, change in the areas for 50 years, and the number and areas of new naturally-dammed lakes in the mountain regions of Uzbekistan. Boundaries of these glaciers together with the ALOS/PALSAR data (2010) were used as the basis to determine position of the firn line. It was revealed that since 1980s elevation range of the line gradually decreased. The relationship between average elevation of the firn line and the upper limit of the juniper tree ccurrence as well as changing of this relation since 1980s are considered. The revealed lakes served as the basis for verification of probabilistic model of the moraine-dammed lake formations due to the glacier recessions in the basins under consideration. It was shown that the GIS-techniques based on the use of this model together with data on glaciation and the relief digital model may significantly simplify searching of new lakes. Application of a system of the mudflow movement modeling makes possible to estimate a risk level in a case of a lake bursting. Current information about changing elevations of the glacier surfaces was obtained duet to the radar interferometry and the altimeter data. The digital model of the river Pskem upper course (the DEM) had been built using the satellite TerraSAR‑X/TanDEM‑X data (2011–2012). All datasets of the elevations were checked for horizontal shifts of the relief digital models relative to the ICESat profiles (2003–2008). Evaluation of accuracy and morphological analysis of all the relief models for the investigated region were also made. DEMs differencing, the difference between ICESat measurements and DEM, nearby ICESat footprints within one track and between the tracks were carried out to assess the change in elevations of the glacier surfaces. Average rate of the surface lowering of an individual glacier with the maximal number of footprints (7) in the track is equal to −1 m/year; on average for 7 corrie-valley glaciers with northern/north-eastern exposition, it is −1.3 m/year in the ablation zone. This rate increases toward to the glacier terminus. Average local mass balance in the ablation zone of the Barkrak Glacier is egual to −0.82±0.36 m w.e. a−1 for the period since 2000 till 2012. Citation: Semakova E.R., Semakov D.G. On a possibility to use the remote sensing techniques for glaciological analysis in mountain regions of Uzbekistan. Led i Sneg. Ice and Snow. 2017. 57 (2): 185–199. [In Russian]. doi:10.15356/2076-6734-2017-2-185-199. Рассматриваются вопросы использования спутниковой информации для решения нескольких задач: расчёта площади ледников Республики Узбекистан и скорости понижения их поверхности; поиска связи между высотой фирновой линии и верхней границей арчи; применения модели возможного формирования моренных озёр при отступании ледников и модели движения селевого потока в случае прорыва ледниковых озёр.
//В сборнике материалов XII Международного научного конгресса Интерэкспо ГЕО-Сибирь-2017: Международной научной конференции «Дистанционные методы зондирования Земли и фотограмметрия, мониторинг окружающей среды, геоэкология», Новосибирск, СГУГиТ, 2017. Т.1,
«Примеры использования данных лазерной альтиметрии в сравнительной оценке наборов высотных данных»
Семакова Э.Р., Семаков Д.Г.
(Абстракт ...) Представлены примеры использования данных лазерной альтиметрии для двух районов исследования в горах Узбекистана в целях проведения сравнительной оценки цифровых моделей рельефа
//Swiss Geoscience Conference 2017, 17-18 November, Davos, Switzerland
«Experience of snow avalanche numerical simulation in Uzbekistan»
Semakova E.
//United Nations/Germany international conference on «International Cooperation Towards Low-Emission and Resilient Societies», 22-24 November 2017, Bonn, Germany
«Using of space technologies for glacier- and snow- related hazards studies»
Semakova E.
//Journal of Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, UK. Vol. 7, Issue 3, 2016: 1-18
«Identification of the glaciers and mountain naturally dammed lakes in Uzbekistan using ALOS satellite data»
E. Semakova, K. Gunasekara, D. Semakov
(Абстракт ...) The glacierized area of Uzbekistan is represented in three river basins  the Pskem, the Kashkadarya and the Surhandarya. This study considers the present state of the glaciers and high-mountain lakes distribution in this area based on the analysis and validation of advanced land observing satellite (ALOS)/advanced visible and near infrared radiometer type 2 (AVNIR-2) satellite data. Between the 1960s and the 2010s, the glacierized area decreased by 23% in the Pskem River basin (including the Maydantal), by 49% in the Kashkadarya and by 40% in the Surhandarya (including the Sangardak and the Tupalang) River basins. The retreat fairly slowed in the 1980s2010s. There are 75 glacial lakes and 35 rock-dammed lakes (including landslide-dammed ones) in the Pskem River basin, 45% of all the lakes covering the area less than 0.002 km2; 13 glacial lakes and 4 rock-dammed lakes in the Kashkadarya and 34 glacial lakes and 16 rock-dammed lakes in the Surhandarya River basins. The landslide rock-dammed Ikhnach Upper Lake lost 0.04 km2 in size from 1 August 2010 to 30 August 2010 because of the seepage through the rock dam and 0.10 km2 from1 August to 18 October 2013.
Астрономический институт имени Улугбека,